After several months of remarkable resilience, gold is going through a more difficult phase. Its price is now approaching $4’000 an ounce, a key technical support level. The pullback is all the more striking because the recent easing in bond yields and the dollar, traditionally supportive for the yellow metal, has not been enough to reverse the trend. In the short term, this technical fragility could continue to fuel volatility.
Nonetheless, we remain confident over the medium term. The resumption of Chinese buying after several months of near silence is an encouraging signal in particular. This return of Chinese purchases, combined with still-solid structural demand from central banks, supports our positive scenario for gold. We therefore maintain our favourable view on gold, while staying attentive to whether the $4’000 level holds.
The S&P 500 is struggling to reach new highs, and the results being published by US companies are unlikely to lift investors' spirits. Admittedly, expected growth for the third quarter of 2026 remains impressive. Analysts anticipate earnings growth of 27%, driven by revenues up 11% year on year. However, this figure represents a marked deceleration from the previous quarter, when growth reached a record of more than 45%!
More disappointing still, companies seem unable to satisfy the market when they report their numbers. Results published so far are beating market expectations by barely 3%. Last season, figures beat consensus estimates by 20%. This is a sign that investor expectations are now much higher, after recent months marked by upward revisions to growth estimates. The bar is much higher today, and the surprises less impressive.
It is worth noting that only a quarter of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. This week will be decisive for markets, as companies representing nearly half of the index's market capitalization are set to release their results.
The technology sector in particular will be closely scrutinized by investors. Many of the sector's mega-caps are on the schedule, which should provide a clearer picture of trends in artificial intelligence. The market is used to exceptional results and will certainly not settle for average numbers. Will hyperscalers' capital expenditure continue to grow exponentially, or did it also peak last quarter?
Financing needs are also a major concern for investors, who have chosen to steer clear of the tech sector in recent weeks while waiting for more visibility on these issues. The recent easing in interest rates is helping to relieve pressure on the sector, which is highly rate sensitive.
Within two weeks, the risk related to quarterly earnings should have faded. Barring any major bad news, particularly for tech companies, US equities could well resume their climb toward new records.
After reaching 5.14% earlier in the week, the yield on the 10-year French government bond fell back below the symbolic 5% threshold on Monday, as Moody's maintained France's sovereign rating at Aa3. A welcome respite for bond investors.