phone-icon
phone-icon

China – the last reopening

Much like investor sentiment, Asian markets have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks. The stock market capitulation after President Xi’s consolidation of power at the Party Congress quickly turned into euphoria, fuelled by hopes of a reopening. Is it too late to participate in this rally?

Commentary by our Asian market analyst and fund manager, Ed Yau.

Contact us
ed-yau-analyste-gerant-de-fonds-investissement-esg-piguet-galland

The pivot across the Pacific

While the Fed pivot, which is being monitored closely by all investors, appears to be just around the corner with inflation finally stabilising, the potential pivot across the Pacific Ocean represents more good news for the global economy. The first glimmers of hope for the end of the zero-covid policy in China seem to appear after a dark tunnel of restrictions that lasted almost three years.

Recent announcements, including the central government acknowledging the benign nature of the Omicron variant, the possibility of home quarantine and the abandonment of most PCR test requirements confirm the desire to ease the restrictive measures which continue to weigh heavily on the economy.

Even more remarkable is that these easing measures were announced at a time when the number of Covid cases exceeded a new record, illustrating the determination of the Chinese authority to reopen its economy. This undeniable change in tone is more likely linked to the heavy economic burden than the protests seen in recent weeks in some Chinese cities.

Light at the end of the tunnel

This exit strategy will not be without risk. The likelihood of a disorderly outbreak of infection cannot be ruled out given the low herd immunity, structural shortcomings in the hospital system and the lack of effective vaccines.

While a complete reversal of the zero-Covid policy in an official manner remains unlikely, an informal easing of restrictions seems more necessary than ever to avoid further social instability and public frustration. After many false starts, this round seems to be truly an abandonment of zero-covid measures. At some point, China will simply have to switch to a de facto policy of Covid tolerance like the rest of the world.

Historic rebound

The timid recovery of the Chinese economy and the relative underperformance of its stock market have been one of the major disappointments for the region since the start of the year. Despite the supportive measures for the real estate sector and the cuts in the reserve requirement ratio announced, it took signals of an acceleration in the reopening for the market to recover and to deliver the strongest monthly increase for the Hong Kong index since 1998.

However, this historic catch-up only erases the correction of the previous two months. Indeed, the region’s indices have only reached  early September levels after this rebound. By finally lifting this brake on growth, the outlook for Chinese markets has improved, which should offer plenty upside potential after one of the worst bearish markets since December 2020.

Ed Yau, a analyst and fund manager

 

 

Want to know more about our investment solutions? Contact us and ask any questions you may have or visit our dedicated investment solutions page!

Summary

Much like investor sentiment, Asian markets have been on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks. The stock market capitulation after President Xi's consolidation of power at the Party Congress quickly turned into euphoria, fuelled by hopes of a reopening. Is it too late to participate in this rally?

Commentary by our Asian market analyst and fund manager, Ed Yau.

Legal

The Piguet Galland & Cie SA website (the "Site") describes the activities of Piguet Galland & Cie SA in Switzerland. Piguet Galland & Cie SA does not offer its services outside of Switzerland, and the Site is meant solely for individuals and legal entities domiciled in Switzerland, along with existing clients of Piguet Galland & Cie SA.

Personal informations
As our services are only available to Swiss residents, the choice of country of residence is not available.
You must accept the terms of use.
* required fields