Tensions around Greenland: what is the real risk for Switzerland? Daniel Varela’s analysis in Le Temps

Trade tensions between the United States and several European countries are resurfacing, with an issue as unexpected as it is strategic in the background: Greenland. Since last weekend, the US administration has been threatening to impose new customs duties on European countries that oppose the transfer of the territory to the United States.

France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Nordic countries and the Netherlands are directly affected. A 10% surcharge could come into force as early as 1 February, with a potential increase to 25% from 1 June should no agreement be reached.

In this context, a natural question arises: could Switzerland be drawn into this new phase of trade escalation?

According to Daniel Varela, Head of Investments at Piguet Galland, the risk remains limited at this stage. The newly announced measures are aimed exclusively at countries that have strengthened their military presence in Greenland in support of Denmark. Switzerland, true to its tradition of neutrality, is not among the states concerned.

Any political or military involvement by the Confederation appears highly unlikely. In keeping with its long-standing principles, Switzerland would instead favour a diplomatic role, offering its good offices should tensions escalate further.

While the return of transatlantic trade tensions is fuelling concern, Switzerland appears, for the time being, to remain on the sidelines of this geopolitical standoff. Nevertheless, continued vigilance is required, as international trade balances can shift rapidly in an environment marked by political unpredictability.

Link to Daniel Varela’s contribution in Le Temps (french only)