“Shopping Season” 2025: a time for spending or a time for doubt?

There are moments in the year when the economy seems suspended in a collective ritual. Despite inflation, customs tariffs, and weakened confidence, the 2025 shopping season is nonetheless expected to attract more consumers than ever. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), 187 million Americans plan to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday—three million more than last year.

This momentum is unfolding within a season that has become crucial for global commerce. The NRF anticipates that November–December spending could exceed one trillion dollars for the first time. Black Friday remains the high point, with 131 million potential shoppers. Interestingly, its name stems from a dual origin: the “black” crowds that flooded and paralysed the streets of Philadelphia in the 1950s after Thanksgiving, and the “black ink” returning to retailers’ accounting books as they began to turn a profit from that date onwards.

E-commerce, fuelled by 7% growth, now accounts for 25% of global sales, compared with 14% before the pandemic, confirming a structural transformation of the sector. Because the shopping season is not just a long weekend: this five-to-six-week period, which runs until Christmas, concentrates 30% to 40% of the annual revenues of many retailers. Last year, it generated 984 billion dollars, with average spending of 850 dollars per American consumer.

Yet behind the euphoria, two major uncertainties cloud this year’s outlook. First, household confidence has deteriorated in recent months, compounded by the government shutdown, which delays the publication of economic indicators and leads to job losses in the public sector. Second, the impact of customs tariffs remains difficult to predict: delayed effects, uneven restocking, and abrupt changes in tariff rates complicate forecasts. According to Mastercard, year-end sales growth could therefore slow to 3.6%, compared with 4.1% in 2024.

However, in a context where the sector has been lagging on stock markets and expectations remain modest, two accelerators should not be underestimated. The first is artificial intelligence, whose use in retail is intensifying: 13% of global AI spending in 2023, still-low but promising conversion rates (2.5% to 3% according to Shopify), and two-thirds of retailers ready to integrate more generative AI into their customer journeys. The second is the power of social networks, which have become a continuous shopping space where recommendations turn into purchases in just a few clicks.

Against this backdrop, five subsectors appear particularly exposed: physical and digital retail, digital payments, logistics and premium delivery, digital advertising and social media, and luxury, traditionally a key driver of December sales. We favour a selective approach focused on high-conviction names, particularly those that have lagged behind but benefit from strong fundamentals and a structurally favourable position within their industries.

At a time when the Federal Reserve appears hesitant to continue its monetary easing, investors question the valuations of major Tech players and the ability of markets to extend their upward trajectory, a stronger-than-expected consumption dynamic could, if it materialises, open the door to the long-awaited year-end rally.