Artificial intelligence: speculative bubble or lasting revolution?

According to UBS, more than USD 300 billion will be invested in artificial intelligence (AI) in 2025. By 2026, that figure could approach USD 500 billion.

This vertiginous growth is fuelling both enthusiasm and caution. Several leading figures in the sector – including Sam Altman (OpenAI) and Jeff Bezos (Amazon) – have already warned of a potential speculative bubble.

To shed light on this debate, Daniel Steck, Fund Manager and Analyst at Piguet Galland, was invited onto Forum, the flagship current affairs programme on RTS.

Exaggerations, but no generalised bubble

Asked whether the current situation could be compared to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s, Daniel Steck offered a nuanced view:

“There are exaggerations, certainly. But talking about a generalised bubble today isn’t justified. The key difference with the 2000s is that the profits of major tech companies – such as Nvidia – have grown at the same pace as their share prices. Current valuations are therefore based on far more solid fundamentals.”

An investment phase before profitability

While MIT estimates that over 90% of AI-related projects fail to deliver results, Daniel Steck reminds us that a heavy investment phase typically precedes profitability:

“We’re still in a period of massive investment. The amounts are colossal, but they’re necessary to build the infrastructure supporting these new technologies. The real question is not if these companies will make money, but when and how they will.”

He nevertheless distinguishes between established players – who benefit directly from these investments – and younger firms whose promises remain largely speculative:

“For the major infrastructure companies, revenues are already tangible. But some smaller firms, focused on products that are still in development, could suffer if enthusiasm begins to fade.”

For investors: favour solid foundations

For savers looking to gain exposure to this theme, Daniel Steck recommends selective prudence:

“There’s no need to bet on small, speculative stocks. Investors can gain exposure to AI through established companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet or Meta, which already integrate artificial intelligence into their operations while maintaining other solid sources of income.”

Even in the event of a sector correction, he believes these firms would retain strong financial foundations and a central role in AI development.

🎥 Watch now:
Catch Daniel Steck’s full interview on Forum, broadcast on RTS (french only)

AI: the race for power – and its limits

In Le Temps, Daniel Steck, Analyst at Piguet Galland, deciphers the frenzy of investment around AI and the risks of overheating.