Market Insights January 19, 2026

The return of the tariff threat

Trump has threatened to impose new tariffs on the eight European countries opposed to the annexation of Greenland, leaving the next steps uncertain. Europe could agree to cede this territory, a scenario that would be market-friendly, but indicative of the strategic weakness of the Old Continent. Conversely, a united front from the 27 EU member states against Trump would very likely lead to a marked escalation in trade tensions. However, such unity has yet to materialize, given the persistent divisions within the European Union.

The rise in tariffs and renewed trade frictions represent downside risks to euro area growth. To mitigate their impact, the ECB retains room to accelerate the pace of rate cuts, while additional fiscal support could also be deployed. On the markets, these tensions fuel uncertainty without undermining our medium-term positive outlook. Following the recent resurgence in optimism and strong equity market performance, a correction phase appeared likely, suggesting increased volatility, particularly in European markets.

Swiss companies breath a sigh of relief!

The Swiss economy enters 2026 in a context of remarkable macroeconomic stability. Forecasts from analysts are now significantly more optimistic, following the United States’ decision to lower tariffs on Swiss imports. Whereas growth might logically have slumped under the weight of these punitive measures, we now estimate that GDP expansion could accelerate over the next two years, potentially outpacing that of neighbouring European countries. Furthermore, recent threats by Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on goods from certain European countries opposing his plans to acquire Greenland could, by contrast, benefit Switzerland and its exporting companies relative to their European competitors.

Our analysis of the valuations and fundamentals of Swiss companies leads us to adopt a decidedly constructive stance on Swiss equities. Despite a globally uncertain environment, Swiss firms display a strong capacity for adaptation, high profitability, and international exposure that enables them to benefit from both global growth and domestic stability. While global equities have seen their valuation multiples soar, Swiss domestic stocks have experienced a valuation decline in recent years, making them particularly attractive in a zero-interest rate context. For Swiss investors, equities remain the only viable option for achieving positive returns.

On the monetary front, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to pursue a cautious policy. Its easing cycle is already well advanced, and barring a major economic shock, the likelihood of a return to negative interest rates appears limited. While upward pressure on the Swiss franc persists, especially against the dollar, we do not anticipate a movement as drastic as that seen in 2025. The competitiveness of Swiss companies should therefore be preserved this year.

In this context, we have decided to increase the weighting of Swiss equities in our asset allocation. This decision is based on the confluence of three factors: a sound macroeconomic environment, a predictable monetary policy, and attractive valuation potential compared to other regions. Earnings prospects remain robust, supported by companies’ ability to generate cash flow and maintain high margins, even in a context of moderate growth.

This week’s figure: 4'670 $

Gold has reached a new historical peak, benefiting from Donald Trump’s unpredictable stance on geopolitical matters, thereby reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset. Its technical breakout has been confirmed, marking the beginning of a new bullish phase for the metal.