Market Insights March 30, 2026

Oil under pressure: impacts and opportunities.

The conflict in the Middle East has entered its fifth week and continues to affect the commodities market. While oil prices remained broadly stable last week, the balance remains highly fragile: flows of crude, refined products, and LNG are nearly at a standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about potential physical shortages in several regions in the near future.

Unless the situation improves rapidly,the price of a barrel could surge beyond $150, a level at which demand would likely begin to contract naturally due to a sharp recession. Conversely, should tensions ease, any correction would probably be more gradual, owing to persistent logistical constraints. Moreover, the energy market would likely retain a geopolitical risk premium.

In this context, renewable energy sources could benefit from renewed interest, despite ongoing reluctance in certain countries. The need to secure local, predictable energy sources that are less dependent on geopolitical tensions should further accelerate their adoption. The nuclear sector, in particular, could emerge as a notable beneficiary once this period of uncertainty subsides.

Heightened caution amid the energy crisis

In recent weeks, the macroeconomic and financial environment has deteriorated markedly. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, combined with the absence of any swift resolution, is sustaining an elevated level of uncertainty. This situation is particularly reflected in energy markets, where oil prices have returned to levels comparable to those observed in 2022. Such developments are rekindling concerns surrounding global growth dynamics, exerting increased pressure on production costs as well as on household purchasing power.

In this context, risk assets appear more exposed to corrective movements. While medium-term economic prospects are not fundamentally called into question, the multiplication of exogenous factors calls for a more cautious stance in the short term. Equity markets, in particular, may remain subject to episodes of heightened volatility as long as visibility remains limited.

Accordingly, we have decided to extend the tactical adjustments initiated in early March. For balanced portfolios, the equity allocation has been reduced by 4%, applied evenly across geographical regions. This reduction, in addition to an initial 3% decrease, now results in an overall underweight position in this asset class. In parallel, cash holdings have been increased and now account for nearly 10% of allocations, providing greater flexibility in an uncertain environment.

Within fixed income, we have implemented targeted reallocations toward opportunities offering a more attractive risk/return profile. We have reduced exposure to Swiss franc-denominated bonds as well as to global high-yield credit, both of which have shown resilience since the onset of tensions. At the same time, we have increased our positioning in long-duration US government bonds, whose yields have recently risen significantly.

Finally, on the currency front, exposure to the US dollar has been increased. In an environment dominated by risk aversion, it is expected to continue fulfilling its role as a safe-haven currency.

Overall, these adjustments reflect our intention to prioritize capital preservation in the short term, while maintaining the flexibility required to increase exposure to risk assets once geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties begin to subside.  

This week's figure: -11.5%

Last Friday, the Nasdaq entered correction territory (a decline of more than 10% from its highs). US tech stocks are under significant pressure, as negative news continues to accumulate for the sector’s heavyweights.