Investment Strategy 1st quarter 2023

Although there is still plenty of uncertainty on the markets, the outlook for 2023 is brightening. Inflation is easing, energy prices are falling, the Chinese economy is up and running again, and the current round of monetary policy tightening looks set to end – all factors that should bring some relief to the markets. Investors should seize this opportunity to find attractive entry points, particularly on the bond market.

Contact us

The storm clouds are clearing

The year 2022 will be remembered not only for the geopolitical tensions that led to the outbreak of war in Ukraine, but also for the upsurge in inflation. Central bankers were forced to rein in lending, having realised a little too late that the price surge wouldn’t be as transitory as they had initially thought. This, in turn, pushed interest rates up sharply, reignited fears of a hard landing for the global economy and sent most asset classes tumbling.

To avoid a second misstep, policy makers at the world’s main central banks are keeping their feet firmly on the brakes for the time being. But there’s likely to be a pause in the current series of rate hikes soon. We expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) – and possibly the Swiss National Bank (SNB) – to announce just that in the coming months, and other central banks, like the European Central Bank (ECB), should follow suit, probably in the second half of the year. Disinflation is now widespread in the US, and it looks like inflation has peaked in Europe too. So 2023 looks set to be a year of transition: economic growth in some regions could stall or even contract slightly, but we might also see the start of a new economic cycle. The outlook is therefore much brighter than it was a few months ago, and a soft landing for the global economy seems more likely. There are two main reasons for this: first, energy prices are falling – particularly gas prices, which have plunged in Europe – and this has eased inflationary pressures and brought some relief for households and companies; and second, China has dropped its zero-COVID policy and reopened its economy, which should boost output in the world’s second largest economy.

This should revive investors’ confidence in the financial markets, although there is still a great deal of uncertainty, and volatility is riding high. Most asset classes are attractively valued at present. Bonds yields are the highest they’ve been for some time. We think equities are broadly undervalued and very likely to rebound after a tough year in 2022. We therefore recommend increasing exposure to European and Asian stocks in portfolios. It’s a good time to buy European bonds and lengthen duration in order to take advantage of the coming decline in interest rates. For Swiss investors, we think the time is right to move back into real estate funds after a tough year for this asset class. However, we are reducing our allocation to alternative funds, which outperformed significantly last year. Lastly, the US dollar could be weakened by the Fed’s moves, particularly against the euro, which will continue to be boosted by the ECB’s efforts to curb inflation. We are therefore increasing our exposure to the single currency and reducing our exposure to the US dollar, including in Swiss franc portfolios.

Find the full analysis of the economic and market situation in our investment strategy as well as an update from our CIO, Daniel Varela, in this short video (in french):

To go further, watch the replay of our webinar of 19 January 2023 about our investment strategy for the first quarter of 2023:

Replay webinaire « Stratégie & point sur les marchés » du 19 janvier 2023

  • Voir le replay du webinaire « Stratégie & point sur les marchés » du jeudi 19 janvier 2023

    Vous souhaitez revoir notre webinaire? Merci de bien vouloir renseigner les champs suivants.



Do you appreciate our investment strategy and would you like to know more about our services? Contact us for a no-obligation consultation. 


The Piguet Galland & Cie SA website (the "Site") describes the activities of Piguet Galland & Cie SA in Switzerland. Piguet Galland & Cie SA does not offer its services outside of Switzerland, and the Site is meant solely for individuals and legal entities domiciled in Switzerland, along with existing clients of Piguet Galland & Cie SA.

Personal informations
As our services are only available to Swiss residents, the choice of country of residence is not available.
You must accept the terms of use.
* required fields